A FUZZY NEURAL NETWORK MODEL FOR ANALYZING BALTIC DRY INDEX IN THE BULK MARITIME INDUSTRY

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C C Chou
K S Lin

Abstract

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is one of the important indexes in the dry bulk shipping market. BDI analysis and forecasting is one of important activities of shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks in the dry bulk shipping market. Based on the accurate BDI analysis and forecasting , the shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks in the bulk shipping market could make many important decisions of shipping operation, management and financial invest such as building a new bulk carrier, chartering-in or chartering-out a second-hand bulk carrier, demolishing an old bulk carrier, and providing funding for shipowners. Thus, this paper adopts a fuzzy neural network model to analyze the relationship between the BDI in the international bulk shipping market and the major economic indexes in the global financial market. Finally, the proposed fuzzy neural network model is tested by empirical data during the period of 2000-2015. The results show that the fuzzy neural network model has high accuracy of forecasting. The fuzzy neural network model in this study seems to be promising and the model could help the shipowners, charterers, shipping carriers, importers and exporters, and banks forecast future BDI points in the bulk shipping market, and then make important decisions and operation strategies of shipping operation, management and financial invest.


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