HANDLING TEMPORAL COMPLEXITY IN THE DESIGN OF NON-TRANSPORT SHIPS USING EPOCH-ERA ANALYSIS

Abstract

The paper is very good, it makes us think that the “requirements of the owner” it is not so simple to achieve. The difficulty is the assembly of the various future scenarios and the care that must be taken in order to reduce the evaluated eras but not removing a likely to occur era.

Did the authors perform a sensitive analyses of the figure of merit to evaluate the effect of the increase of the weight of the short term epoch, where uncertainties are lower, on the resultant optimum ship? If the weight of the short term is very high, I believe the resultant vessel shall be the vessel with lower cost that fulfills the short term contracts. How to calibrate this number and get the appropriate result?